'Disaster of a year' for new TV shows, analyst

Only 23 percent of last season's new broadcast series -- excluding reality and mid-season shows -- were picked up for the fall, the lowest rate in five years, a research report said Wednesday.

In all, the just-finished 2010/11 TV season was a "disaster of a year for new hit programing," Nomura analyst Michael Nathanson wrote.

Of the new scripted shows launched in the fall of 2010, only five are returning for next season. A year earlier, the success rate was 50 percent.

Those that made the cut are the CBS trio "Hawaii Five-0," "Mike & Molly" and "Blue Bloods," Fox's "Raising Hope" and the CW's "Nikita." Additionally, four shows got picked up after a mid- or late-season start -- Fox's "Bob's Burgers," ABC's "Happy Endings," and "Body of Proof," NBC's "Harry's Law."

As a result of the dearth of new hits, "the value of shows that are now deemed 'hits' are rising despite their smaller ratings," according to the analyst.

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Nathanson analyzed syndication sales of the past broadcast season compared with five years ago. "The dollars per average rating point for the two comedies recently sold ("The Big Bang Theory" and "Modern Family") are anywhere from double to more than triple the comparisons of the comedies sold five years ago," he said.

"Big Bang Theory" drew $1.5 million per episode in syndication, or 32 cents per viewer when using average ratings among the coveted adults 18-49 demo, he said. In comparison, "King of Queens" in 2006 earned $425,000 or 10 cents.

Digital sales to new online players, such as Hulu and Netflix, and particularly international sales are helping TV studios make a profit earlier, Nathanson noted.

Historically, a studio would make a profit after syndication sales to TV stations and/or cable networks, usually a few years into the show's run.

"However, the recent growth in international syndication has altered the profit equation for TV studios," he said. "Today, international syndication revenue is often large enough to offset the production deficit and bring a current show to break-even in year one, thereby accelerating the investment returns for the TV studios."

(Hollywood Reporter)